How long to invade iraq

The government of Saddam Hussein loses control over Iraq's capital Baghdad, with the advance of US forces into the centre of the city. Baghdad falls to US forces. President Bush appears on an aircraft carrier off the coast of California to declare victory. A BBC report casts doubt on the government's dossier stating that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction capable of being deployed within 45 minutes.

Government weapons expert David Kelly is found dead after being exposed as the source of the BBC story about the dossier. Kelly death examined. Saddam Hussein is found by US troops in a cellar south of Tikrit, his home town.

Saddam captured. Insurgents in Iraq begin targeting US-backed forces and fighting erupts between rival militias. The Hutton Report into David Kelly's death is published, clearing ministers of wrongdoing and saying that Dr Kelly took his own life. Key points: Hutton Report. The Butler Review on military intelligence finds key information used to justify the war in Iraq has been shown to be unreliable.

MI6 did not check its sources well enough and sometimes relied on third-hand reports, it adds. It also says the dossier should not have included the claim Iraq could use weapons of mass destruction within 45 minutes without further explanation. Key points: Butler Report. Suicide bombings increase, with attacks during the year. Although both have long been desired by Iraqis and international interlocutors to lead in those positions, they were unable to usher the changes in governance and reform that Iraq needed.

In October , hundreds of thousands of protestors took to the street to demand change and reform. However, the response from government forces and armed groups was lethal, leaving over 20, people injured and more than people killed.

On May 23,Bremer dissolved the Iraqi military, leaving more than , soldiers without jobs. Former soldiers with the rank of colonel or above were banned from working for the new Iraqi government and did not receive severance or retirement. Army chief of staff, told TIME in Bremer served as head of a caretaker government until the handover to a provisional Iraqi government.

A bombing at the U. Jordanian-born jihadi Abu Musab al-Zarqawi—who led a group originally known as Tawhid and Jihad and later as al-Qaida of Iraq—was responsible. Among the dead was Ayatollah Muhammad Bakr al-Hakim, an important religious leader who had cooperated with U. In October and November, Iraqi insurgents launched a massive offensive during the month of Ramadan that struck dozens of targets, including the Red Cross headquarters in Baghdad.

Hussein had been broadcasting pro-insurgency messages since the U. The admission followed the January 23 testimony and resignation of David Kay, the chief weapons inspector of the U. On March 2,terrorists attacked Shia worshippers observing the Ashura holiday in Baghdad and Karbala with small arms and explosives.

At least were killed in the deadliest day since the U. Coalition forces suspected al-Zarqawi. The U. In April and May, chronic prisoner abuse by U. The scandal triggered backlash against the United States and U. The move transferred nominal sovereignty from U. The group had perpetrated about a dozen attacks in Iraq. It was also infamous for beheading foreign hostages. In November and December, U. The operation was the bloodiest yet for U. Iraqis voted for the Transitional National Assembly in the first elections since the U.

Shia cleric Ayatollah al-Sistani endorsed the elections and encouraged participation. Kurdish parties secured approximately 25 percent. Violence and low Sunni turnout marred the outcome of the first elections.

At least people were killed in Hilla, south of Baghdad, in the deadliest single bombing since the U. Insurgents killed hundreds of Shias to undermine the government and trigger a wider sectarian conflict. Shia leaders urged their followers not to take revenge. Iraq suffered car bombings in April, up from 69 in March. President Talabani named Ibrahim Jaafari, from a religious party, as prime minister. On June 14, Massoud Barzani was sworn in as president of the Kurdistan Region of Iraq, the result of an agreement with Iraqi President Talabani on power sharing between their rival Kurdish parties.

On August 31, fears of a suicide bomber approaching triggered a panicked stampede by Shia pilgrims on a bridge to the Kadhimiyah Shrine, in northern Baghdad, which killed more than 95 people. All the detainees were Sunnis. Twin suicide bombings at two Shia mosques in Khanaqin, near the eastern border with Iran, killed 90 Iraqi civilians.

The bombings occurred as U. Following the vote to ratify a new constitution in October, Iraqis elected a new parliament for the first time since the U. Turnout was high. The results were announced in January.

The United Iraqi Alliance—a list of Islamist groups— won the most seats, , but fell 10 short of the majority needed to govern without a coalition.

The secular list of former Prime Minister Allawi won just 25 seats. The two Sunni lists collectively won 55 seats, significantly increasing their representation compared to the previous parliament.

Sunnis had largely boycotted the January election. In separate attacks AQI suicide bombers attacked police recruits in Ramadi and pilgrims in Karbala, killing more than people. It was still commonly referred to as AQI. In March, Kurdish and Sunni parties rejected Jaafari as prime minister and refused to join a national unity government because he had failed to stop escalating sectarian violence.

On April 21, Jaafari agreed to step aside. After 22 policemen were arrested for killing Sunnis, the Interior Ministry launched an investigation into its personnel who had allegedly ran death squads. The arrests brought attention to a pattern of extrajudicial killing by Iraqi forces targeting minority Sunnis. On February 22, the famous golden dome of the al Askari Shrine in Samarra, one of the holiest Shia shrines, was destroyed in a bombing widely blamed on Sunni jihadis of AQI.

The shrine bombing triggered violence by Shia and Sunni militias that killed more than a 1, people. On March 26, U. Ambassador Khalizad charged that violence by Shia militias exceeded killings by Sunni terrorists or insurgents.

He urged the prime minister to reign in militias and end extrajudicial killings by people with links to the government. On April 7, a triple suicide bombing at the Shia Buratha mosque in Baghdad killed 85 and wounded The attack came amid a post-election political crisis and related sectarian violence.

His cabinet included representatives from most Iraqi sects and ethnic groups, although three key cabinet positions remained unfilled due to sectarian disagreements. Jawad al-Bolani, a Shia, became interior minister.

Sherwan al-Waili, a Shia, became national security minister. He was succeeded by Abu Ayyub al-Masri. On June 14, Prime Minister Nuri al Maliki released his security plan, Operation Together Forward, to improve conditions in the Baghdad area amid increasing sectarian bloodletting.

It introduced curfews, checkpoints, and joint Iraqi-U. On June 25, Prime Minister Maliki delivered his point plan to restore order and reduce sectarian violence in Iraq.

The reconciliation plan promised amnesty for those imprisoned on charges unrelated to crime, war crimes, and crimes against humanity. Videos of three Russian diplomats kidnapped on June 3 being executed was released online. On July 1, at least 66 people were killed in a car bombing at an outdoor market in the Shia Sadr City area of Baghdad. President George W. Hostilities began about 90 minutes after the U. President Bush declared the end of major combat operations on May 1, Despite the defeat of conventional military forces in Iraq, an insurgency has continued an intense guerrilla war in the nation in the years since military victory was announced, resulting in thousands of coalition military, insurgent and civilian deaths.

After an intense manhunt, U. He did not resist and was uninjured during the arrest. A new constitution for the country was ratified that October. On November 6, , Saddam Hussein was found guilty of crimes against humanity and sentenced to death by hanging.

However, the U. The Administration organized an April 15 meeting, in Nasiriyah, to begin a process of selecting an interim administration. However, SCIRI, along with several Shiite clerics that have appropriated authority throughout much of southern Iraq since the fall of the regime, boycotted the meeting and called for an Islamic state and the withdrawal of U. At the same time, some recent violence in the Shiite-dominated areas of Iraq, including the early April killing of prominent cleric Abd al-Majid Khoi, could be connected with a jockeying for power within the Shiite community, and between it and other contenders.

Reconstruction and Oil Industry Issues. It is widely assumed that Iraq's vast oil reserves, believed second only to those of Saudi Arabia, will be used to fund reconstruction. Presidential spokesman Ari Fleischer said on February 18, , referring to Iraq's oil reserves, that Iraq has "a variety of means All fires have been extinguished. The remaining problems for the United States and Britain are to get Iraqi oil workers to return to work and to establish a successor government with legal authority to contract for sales of Iraq's oil to international buyers.

Press reports on April 14, said the United States is considering former senior Iraqi oil professional Fadhil Othman to be an interim oil minister, reportedly with some oversight by a U. A related issue is long-term development of Iraq's oil industry, and which foreign energy firms, if any, might receive preference for contracts to explore Iraq's vast reserves.

Russia, China, and others are said to fear that the United States will seek to develop Iraq's oil industry with minimal participation of firms from other countries. Some press reports suggest the Administration is planning to exert such control, 59 although some observers speculate that the Administration had initially sought to create such an impression in order to persuade Russia to support use of force against Iraq. The program, which is an exception to the comprehensive U. It was suspended just before hostilities began, when U.

On March 28, , the U. Security Council unanimously adopted Resolution that restarted the program's operations and empowered the United Nations, for a day period, to take direct control of all aspects of the program. Under the resolution, the United Nations set priorities for and directed the delivery of already-contracted supplies. On April 17, , President Bush called for the lifting of U.

In an FY supplemental appropriation P. In November , the U. On March 18, , the Administration released a list of 30 countries that had publicly stated their support for U. Nevertheless, only three countries supplied ground combat troops in significant numbers- in contrast to the Gulf war when more than 30 countries provided military support or to the campaign in Afghanistan, when 21 sent armed forces.

Political and Military Factors. On the international political front, analysts contend that it was important for the United States to enlist allies in order to demonstrate that it was not acting unilaterally-that its use of force to disarm Iraq had been endorsed by a broad global coalition. Although the political leaders of some Islamic countries were reportedly sympathetic to the Bush Administration's aims, they had to consider hostility to U.

Analysts have suggested that some countries sided with the United States out of mixed motives; former U. From a strictly military standpoint, active allied participation was not critical. NATO invoked Article 5 mutual defense shortly after the September 11, attacks against the United States, but during the subsequent war in Afghanistan, the United States initially relied mainly on its own military resources, accepting only small contingents of special forces from a handful of other countries.

Allied combat and peacekeeping forces arrived in larger numbers only after the Taliban had been defeated. Analysts speculate that the Administration chose to "go it alone" because the unique nature of U.

An opposing view is that the United States lost an opportunity in Afghanistan to lay the political groundwork for an allied coalition in the conflict against terrorism. Another military rationale for having primarily U. Direct and Indirect Contributions. Britain, the only other country that had warplanes patrolling the no-fly zones in Iraq, sent or committed 45, ground troops, as well as air and naval forces, and Australia committed 2, special forces troops, naval vessels, and fighter aircraft.

Poland authorized troops, including both special forces and non-combat personnel. In a non-combat capacity, Denmark sent two warships and a medical unit, South Korea approved the deployment of engineers and medics, and Spain dispatched three naval vessels. Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Germany, Romania, Slovakia, and Ukraine pledged contingents of anti-chemical and -biological weapons specialists.

Japan, constitutionally barred from sending ground troops, was reportedly prepared to help in the disposal of chemical and biological weapons, and also reinforced its naval fleet patrolling the Indian Ocean. Other forms of support were also valuable. For example, countries granted overflight rights or back-filled for U.

In addition, gaining permission to launch air strikes from countries close to Iraq reduced the need for mid-air refueling, allowed aircraft to re-arm sooner, and enabled planes to respond more quickly to ground force calls for air strikes; several countries, including Djibouti, Ethiopia, Kuwait, Spain, Italy, Portugal, Romania, and Bulgaria allowed the use of their airbases and seaports.

At the Bush Administration's request, Hungary approved the use of its Taszar airbase for the training of Iraqi dissidents as non-combatant interpreters and administrators; the initial plan was to train up to 3, Iraqi expatriates, but on April 1 it was announced that the program had been suspended after had been trained.

On January 15, the United States formally requested several measures of assistance from the NATO allies, such as airborne warning and control systems aircraft AWACS , refueling, and overflight privileges; the request was deferred. The impasse was broken by an agreement over language indicating that such assistance "relates only to the defense of Turkey" and would not imply NATO support for a military operation against Iraq.

On April 16, NATO announced that, since Turkey no longer believed itself to be threatened, the defensive missiles and surveillance aircraft would be returned to their home bases. The Bush Administration asked permission of the Turkish government to use Turkish bases and ports and to move American troops through southeast Turkey to establish a northern front against Iraq. The talks over troop access proceeded in tandem with negotiations over a U.

On March 1, however, the Turkish parliament rejected the deal by a three-vote margin. On March 20, the Turkish parliament authorized overflight rights but also agreed to send Turkish troops into Iraq, a move opposed by the United States and other countries.

After an early April visit by Secretary Powell, it was announced that Turkey would permit the transshipment of nonlethal military supplies and equipment to U. See above, Diplomatic Issues. Some Members of Congress criticized Turkey, claiming it sought to leverage U.

Ankara also was concerned that the Iraq conflict might re-kindle efforts of Kurdish separatists to carve out a Kurdish state; such a move would likely prompt Turkish intervention. Finally, Turkey has sought assurances that Iraq's million ethnic Turkmen would be able to play a post-war role in Iraq. In late February , Jordan's prime minister acknowledged the presence of several hundred U. Although the Persian Gulf states generally opposed an attack on Iraq in public statements, more than , U.

The Saudis also pledged to step up their oil output to compensate for any drop in Iraqi production. Kuwait served as the launch pad for the U.

In addition, five U. Post-Conflict Assistance. After the Gulf War, several nations - notably Japan, Saudi Arabia and Germany - provided monetary contributions to offset the costs of the conflict; it is not yet known if such will be the case for the Iraq war.

Before hostilities, several countries, including France, Japan, Sweden, Russia, Estonia, Lithuania, and Romania indicated that they might play a role. In late April, it was announced that U. Deputy Defense Secretary Wolfowitz stated that the Bush Administration would "pressure all our friends and allies to contribute as much as they can. In addition, Denmark has proposed the creation of an ad hoc peacekeeping force. The opportunity to craft a new government and new institutions in Iraq is likely to increase U.

Conversely, U. Middle East governments that provided support to the U. Allegations by senior U. Such warnings could encourage more cooperation on the part of other Middle Eastern countries with U. On the other hand, the U. Democracy and Governance. Some commentators, including officials in the Bush Administration, believe that the war with Iraq and the overthrow of Saddam Hussein will lead to a democratic revolution in large parts of the Middle East. Some link democracy in the Middle East with a broader effort to pursue development in a region that has lagged behind much of the world in economic and social spheres, as well as in individual freedom and political empowerment.

In a speech at the Heritage Foundation on December 12, , Secretary of State Colin Powell announced a three-pronged "Partnership for Peace" initiative designed to enhance economic development, improve education, and build institutions of civil society in the Middle East.

Separately, Crown Prince Abdullah of Saudi Arabia has reportedly proposed an "Arab Charter" that would encourage wider political participation, economic integration, and mutual security measures. In his ultimatum to Saddam Hussein on March 17, , President Bush commented that after Saddam's departure from the scene, the Iraqi people "can set an example to all the Middle East of a vital and peaceful and self-governing nation.

Skeptics, however, charge that U. Middle Eastern policy has traditionally been tolerant of autocratic or corrupt regimes as long as they provide support for U.

Still others fear that more open political systems could lead to a takeover by Islamic fundamentalist groups, who often constitute the most viable opposition in Middle East countries, or by other groups whose goals might be inimical to U.

Some commentators are concerned that lack of prior experience with democracy may inhibit the growth of democratic institutions in the Middle East. Finally, a U. Arab-Israeli Peacemaking. Administration officials and other commentators argue that resolving the crisis with Iraq may have created a more favorable climate for future initiatives to resume currently stalled Arab-Israeli peace negotiations.

Proponents of this view cite the experience of the first Bush Administration, which brought Arabs and Israelis together in a landmark peace conference at Madrid in , after first disposing of the Iraqi occupation of Kuwait. Officials of the present Bush Administration have continued to speak of their vision of pursuing an Arab-Israeli peace settlement after eliminating threats from Iraq. In a statement to the press on March 14, , President Bush affirmed that "America is committed, and I am personally committed, to implementing our road map toward peace" between Arabs and Israelis.

Others believe, however, that resentment within the region over the U. Security Arrangements in the Gulf Region. Large-scale deployment of U. However, some fear that long-lasting major U. Even friendly Middle East countries may eventually seek a reduction in U.

Defense officials reportedly are contemplating a significant reduction in U. Large-scale humanitarian and reconstruction assistance programs are expected to be undertaken by the United States during and following the war in Iraq. Initial U. The United States has pledged to release , tons of food.

However, with the main fighting now finished in Iraq, attention is also quickly turning to plans for reconstruction. FY Supplemental. The President, however, must consult with the Appropriations Committees prior to allocation of funds, and all obligations must be notified to the Committees five days in advance.

Reportedly, there are still tensions between the State Department and DOD over policy matters in the reconstruction of Iraq; however, USAID has pointed out that the same coordinated delivery system applied to other conflicts is being used in Iraq. On March 28, the U. Security Council unanimously approved Resolution , which gives Secretary General Annan authority to prioritize and coordinate the immediate humanitarian needs of Iraqi civilians for an initial day period, or until May 12, under an expanded OFFP.

The debate over the reactivation of the OFFP has also been highlighted by the larger question of what role the U. The ability of the United States to use oil resources for more long-term reconstruction purposes would require a Security Council resolution providing legitimacy to any interim Iraqi authority that might be the recipient of oil profits.

On April 16, President Bush urged the U. In addition, the United States has initiated an effort to obtain support from creditors for Iraq debt relief. On March 20, President Bush issued an executive order confiscating non-diplomatic Iraqi assets held in the United States. Other Donors. On March 28, , U. The EU has designated million euros for humanitarian relief agencies. International contributions have been pledged or received from a number of other donors in funds for Iraq, for humanitarian relief in neighboring countries, and for in-kind emergency supplies.

Aid Policy Structure in Iraq. To prepare for the use of aid, a post-war planning office was established on January 20, , by a presidential directive. While immediate overall responsibility for the war and management of U. In addition, it is responsible for implementing U. The Office, headed by retired Army Lt.

Jay M. Garner, has three civilian coordinators - for reconstruction, civil administration, and humanitarian relief. Indigenous Iraqi groups are expected to be formed in each province to propose assistance activities to be implemented in their area.

He toured Baghdad and other parts of Iraq on April According to planners, U. Reportedly, some U. They are concerned that operating under DOD jurisdiction complicates their ability to help the Iraqis, jeopardizes their neutrality, and increases the risk to aid workers because they will be perceived as being closely allied with the U. Many NGOs view the U. Until it was suspended on the eve of war, U. Prior to the war, sources said the average Iraqi had food supplies lasting a few months, but food security remains uncertain, just as the amount of food stored in OFFP warehouses is also unclear.

Contingency Preparations. In the weeks leading up to the war, aid organizations planned for humanitarian needs amid great uncertainty about conditions in the aftermath of conflict. While some argued initially that there was still a huge shortfall of resources and funding available for humanitarian assistance, the fact that the borders have remained quiet has allowed more time for further preparation.

Although population movements now appear less likely, there were concerns about the absorptive capacity of neighboring countries, whether they could provide adequately for these populations, and the impact of refugee flows on stability in the region. Iran, Turkey, Jordan, Syria, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait have all publicly stated that they will prevent refugees from entering their countries, although each has continued to make preparations for assistance either within Iraq's borders or at transit areas at border crossing points.

Although NGOs have also been putting together plans, the absence of international organizations and NGOs with experience operating in and around Iraq means there are few networks in place and some concern over the implementation of relief operations. Current Operating Environment. The war is destroying critical infrastructure, disrupting delivery of basic services and food supplies, and affecting the humanitarian situation inside Iraq.

So far it has not reached the crisis levels predicted before the start of hostilities. Widespread hunger and massive population movements have not materialized. Still, lack of electricity, water shortages, inadequate sanitation, and greatly reduced medical care are creating hardship for many. The humanitarian situation continues to evolve as the war progresses.

The amount of assistance that is ultimately needed will obviously depend on the nature and duration of the conflict. Relief and Security. In the short term, security of humanitarian aid delivery and distribution is a top priority. During the height of the military campaign, when small amounts of aid got through, logistical problems and unruly mobs made distribution very difficult.

Since then, looting and lawlessness, particularly in places where heavy fighting took place, have been widespread and even included hospitals and water supply installations, which is having an increased impact on health care. Most aid agencies remain on Iraq's border unwilling to enter for security reasons. Some U. Deliveries of water, food, and medical supplies are slowly getting through, even though at times the chaos and violence hampers the efforts of those trying to provide the most minimal vital assistance.

In general, the overall situation still has not not resulted in consistent, comprehensive provision of aid. Regular non-military flights into Baghdad are pending approval by the military. Although pockets of resistance continue throughout the country, coalition troops are now also patrolling cities and appear to be controlling much of the looting.

In addition, they are beginning to assist with the restoration of basic public services. Despite the obvious destruction from bombing and looting, in some places, such as Baghdad, there are signs of a return to normal life in the form of traffic jams, lines at gas stations, and food stalls with produce. The United States has not yet declared victory in Iraq, but a new phase, to bring about law and order and humanitarian relief, appears to be underway.

Throughout the country, logistical problems continue to complicate the security of supply routes. Once security is established, questions remain about delivery of aid whether roads used by the military will be usable or whether separate supply routes will need to be put in place ; availability of cargo and water trucks currently in short supply ; and distribution particularly in cities where the military is may not have gained full control over population centers.

Aid agencies plan to establish bases within Iraq to support relief operations. However, they fear that receiving protection from coalition-led forces could mean an increase in security risks for their staff. The EU is also concerned about the "independence and integrity of delivering humanitarian aid.

The apparent bitterness towards the coalition forces also remains an issue. Water and Sanitation. An insufficient water supply is proving to be one of the biggest humanitarian challenges. Deliveries by tanker to some towns, building an extension to the pipeline from Kuwait to Umm Qasr, and mobile teams working to repair and maintain generators are mechanisms underway to address the problem. Shortages of fuel have also been reported. Many sewer treatment plants are not functioning, allowing sewage to drain into water systems.